Blueprint for Philippine Defense?

Philippine and American Training Exercise

The following news report appeared in Ariraing News last week. It is short and well worth reading. Commentary follows.

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S. Korea-U.S. Joint Forces Sign New Defense Plan

Arirang News, March 25, 2013

Since North Korea's torpedo attack on a South Korean warship and its shelling of a South Korean border island in 2010, the South Korea-U.S. joint military forces have been working on a plan to counter North Korean provocations more effectively.

After more than two years of talks, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Jung Seung-jo and the Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea General James Thurman signed a so-called "Joint Counter-Provocation Plan" on Friday which is a defense strategy led by South Korea, and supported by U.S. forces.

The plan went into effect immediately.

"With the completion of this plan, the South Korea-U.S. joint forces are now ready for strong and immediate counter actions against any North Korean provocation."

The new defense plan calls for military aid by the U.S. armed forces when required by the South Korean forces.

Previously, the U.S. forces were allowed to participate in an inter-Korean military conflict when a full-fledged war breaks out.

The plan also lays out specific joint counter military strategies against various types of North Korean provocations. 

Despite rising inter-Korean military tensions, South Korea's presidential office says it will offer humanitarian aid to North Korea and expand dialogue.. if Pyongyang doesn't carry out further provocations and shows efforts to stick to its international obligations.

A senior official in the presidential office told Seoul-based Yonhap News Agency on Sunday, that the Park Geun-hye administration's North Korea policy is different from that of the previous government's hard-line policy.

The remarks follow President Park Geun-hye's approval of a humanitarian aid shipment to North Korea by a private charity group on Friday.

Han Da-eun, Arirang News

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This is a very unusual development. The U.S. will bow to the lead of South Korea.

American military leadership can do this confidently because multiple scenarios have been drawn up that define under what circumstances U.S. forces will engage, and how they will be deployed.

I would also suspect that South Korea has demonstrated a grasp of military strategy and execution that has gained the respect of top American military officials.

So we have a prototype plan here, do we not?

1. Sovereignty of South Korea preserved; power of America standing ready.

2. Specific agreements define what levels of U.S. force will be deployed in certain circumstances.

3. Mutual confidence exists.

It took several years to finalize this plan, specifically, I would imagine, point 2. 

Can the Philippines craft a similar plan with the U.S. to counter China? After all, China is also being provocative. Some observations:

Point 1 is a given. The Philippines cannot be subordinate to U.S. military leadership.

Point 2 is a matter of time and talk, and having the Korean plan in place might shorten the timeframe. It can be the starting framework.

Point 3 is the crucial matter. Do American generals respect Philippine military leadership, discipline and thinking? I have no idea. But I can say with some confidence an opinion exists among the American generals based on joint training.

Under terms of the Visiting Forces Agreement ("VFA"), the U.S. will not allow her troops to be held in Philippine jails pending trial. I think this reflects the American military's lack of confidence in Philippine legal and judicial processes.

Is the Philippine military in the same boat? Viewed with skepticism? Or do top Philippine generals, schooled in American military academies and a frequent partner in military training exercises, command the respect of America's generals?  During training exercises, do they display the kind of crisp, firm decision-making required of top military leaders? 

I have no idea, but I don't mind posing the blunt question in the back of some American minds: are Philippine generals top-notch capable, or are they generals because they were someone's classmate?

The U.S. military will not subordinate American troops to Philippine generals in whom they have little confidence.

Very clearly, President Aquino would need a candid readout from American generals about Philippine competency. The President ought not think he can "sell" Philippine capability to American generals politically. They won't buy what he is peddling. They will only buy competence.

If Philippine top generals are good, no problem. A Korean-style defense agreement ought to be drawn up.

If they are not good, they need to be changed or trained up more intensely than in the past. Philippine military leadership needs to be capable of commanding respect among very demanding, competent American generals.

I certainly have no idea of the character and capability of top Philippine generals. But I do know that Jun Abaya, former House Representative and head of the Department of Transportation and Communications ("DOTC"), ranked 2nd in his class academically at the U.S. Naval Academy. That gains huge respect points.

Maybe he'd make a superb general.

My point is that the top ranks have to be very, very good to impress American generals. You actually have to prove competence, not expect it because, well . . . we're the Philippines.

You can bet that the U.S. is not inclined to subordinate its troops to the weak of judgment, skill or will. They'd have to explain the loss of American lives to American parents, spouses and children. They also have to deal with an American public that knows very little about the Philippines. But once a "deal" is announced, the press spotlight will shine on the relationship, and the Philippine eviction of American military, and Philippine "first out" of Iraq, will be brought glaringly into that light by critics.

I find it interesting that America's pivot to Asia presents an opportunity for the Philippines to prove capability. American skepticism has always been, since 1898, can the Philippines get its self-governing act together? 

I'd opine that the proof is to be found in deeds, not politics.