Why China is a Real Threat

Chinese mob attacks Japanese car

At the end of 2012, JoeAm identified four institutions that are interested in undermining the development of a modern Philippines. Here is a status report:

• The Anti Blog Sites are best ignored as they dissolve in the acids of their bitter view of the Philippines and Filipinos. The positive developments in the Philippines are real. The Antis have been wrong for three years and still can't summon up the candor to acknowledge that fact. That, my friends, is called denial.

• China is pursuing its belligerant approach to other nations in Asia. Today's article addresses this.

• The Catholic Church is rather like the Republic Party in the US, just off a bitter political loss and trying to reconcile the defeat with their belief that they are the Lords of All Wisdom. JoeAm has written several articles on this topic and is prepared to resume doing his attack writings if the Church again raises its political head to try to drag the Philippine back into the dark ages. For now, he will let the Church partake of introspection in hopes that the CBCP leaders will see that their political engagements are as beneficial as flagellation. 

• The Chronically Corrupt are on the run thanks to the Aquino Administration's attack dogs, the Ombudsman and Justice. JoeAm will comment from time to time.

Today's subject: China.

China is run by committee and, like any large state, has many challenges and internal disagreements on how to move forward. Very clearly, China wants to grow wealthier and provide for her citizens. This makes her a  rising gorilla of consumption and she is feeding her beast lavishly. Acquiring patented secrets through theft, gaining control of most of the earth's rare-earth metals (essential for electronics), expanding her reach in Latin America and Australia and anywhere she can gain entry.  Scraping rocks from the Philippine mountains for a cheap 2% excise payment.

Chinese rally in protest of Japan's claim to "Chinese" islands

From the Chinese point of view, this is good progress. Theft of secrets can be rationalized as essential to make up for historical discrimination and punishments. Capturing the market on rare earth metals is good competitive execution. Going after oil and minerals around the globe is essential to feed and raise the living standards of the millions of Chinese moving from poverty to middle class.

Americans or Europeans might not like this rising giant taking over all the choice markets, but they've each had their turn in the sunshine. It's a free world, after all.

The essential question is, does China have the depth and breath of tolerance and respect for others to pursue her aims in a way that avoids violent confrontation?

The two photographs above illustrate the depth of hostility that China is able to work up through State controlled media. China is an emotional nation, as Japan was an emotional nation leading up to World War II. Japan has been punished economically by China this past year for waging dispute over islands. Many Japanese businesses withdrew from Japan, others suffered material damages, physical or financial though boycotts.

The Philippine engagement is mild by comparison, but that does not mean it will stay that way.

This is a bit of a dance, but it is transpiring on the edge of a cliff. One best move carefully.

The great mystery for outsiders is understanding what the REAL policy of China is. When a military officer of substantial rank cites an opinion, is he speaking for the State of China?

When American military officers speak publicly, they are representing the United States, officially. So they speak with care, or not at all.

So what do we hear if we listen to Chinese military men? Here is an excerpt from a fascinating Reuters article, just published, called "Special Report: China's military hawks take the offensive".

The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, is renowned for his regular calls to arms. With China in dispute for much of last year with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Dai argued a short, decisive war, like China's 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. He also said Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats. "Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real," he wrote in an August 28 commentary published in the Chinese-language edition of the Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid published by the Communist Party organ, the People's Daily. "This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia," added Dai, a researcher at Beijing University's China Centre for Strategic Studies. "We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel."

Source: Reuters

And what do we THINK when we hear these statements.

"Running dogs?"

It's physical. Japanese Coast Guard corrals protesters.

"We only need to kill one?"

There is an arrogance, emotionalism and Chinese centrism to these statements that is frightening. One would be remiss to believe this is NOT the official attitude of the Chinese central committee.

One might conceivably argue that this man is just a colonel and does not speak for the State. He speaks for himself. Then one would have to conclude that the Chinese military has poor discipline, and there is nothing to prevent a hothead anywhere from pulling a trigger or pushing a button.

"Oh, it is just bluster. The Chinese are good at the subtleties of international gamesmanship."

So then we can't trust China at all, eh?

The most prudent course is to expect that China WILL use military force to take command of islands within Philippine territorial waters. Just as her Navy now resides on Scarborough Shoals with no intention of leaving. That's 124 nautical miles from Luzon. Pag-asa Island in the middle of the Spratleys, with a vibrant Filipino community, well outside the 200 nautical mile economic zone from Palawan, is perhaps the most dangerous place of contention. It is not like the bare rock at Scarborough.

It would be prudent to draw up alternative ways of reacting to further Chinese aggression.

Sooner rather than later.

When the day arises that China asserts claim, militarily, to occupied Philippine islands, Mr. Aquino must select the best alternative.

It should be well thought out ahead of time. That is my main point here.

You will notice that I did not say "if" the day arises.

Public statements following any incident should be quick. Clear. Firm. Confident. They should not be doubtful or timid or reflective of surprise.

The Philippines would be negligent if it were surprised by any step China might take.