Loose Ends

Let us take a quick fly across the news and catch up on a few loose ends.

Anteater Jacket

22,000 Pounds Is a Lot of Anteaters

The Chinese poaching vessel that ran around on Tubbataha Reef near where the US minesweeper was recently extracted carried 11 tons of dead anteaters. Those Chinese, boy, they are weird in the cuisine and clothing departments. The maximum jail time for poaching is 12 years, and time for having endangered species is another six. So I'd give the captain the full 18 years and the next guy in charge eight and all the crew five years each at labor, assigned to assist Palawan in their re-foresting effort.

I'd guess these are not spiritual guys. They don't climb to the tops of mountains and reflect on the power and beauty of God's glorious green earth. 

Bias R Us

"Hey Joe, what's with letting the American minesweeper crew off without jail time, but demanding the Chinese get jailed? Your bias is showing!"

That is not bias, that is a crisp understanding of the TRUTH that commie leftists and ultra-nationalists deny, the United States is a part of the Philippine family and we ought not jail our own errant relatives. Especially if we want America to sweep the Chinese mines off the beaches of Palawan a year or two from now. The distinction is akin to that between a drunken uncle who staggers through the living room and breaks Mama's favorite vase, and a snarling neighbor caught red-handed on the terrace trying to steal Mama's prized Australian cockatoo.

Boston Massacre

When things like this happen, I recognize what a pitiful place our planet is in the people department. To hate so much that the murder of innocents is rationalized as righteous. I ache for the good people who were cast into tragedy by the bomber(s). They were out to celebrate and lost loved ones instead.

Separating Issue from Individual: The President

I've often urged Filipinos, particularly bloggers, to stop criticizing their President as if he were out to "get" the Philippines each time he makes a move they disagree with. Joe Klein of Time Magazine expressed this thought well as follow-up to the Boston Marathon bombing. He was speaking to American media:

• 6. And I would urge those in the media who speak of the United States government as if it were a foreign entity to chill out. You may be further poisoning the demented. Criticism of the government is, of course, as American as oxycont . . . but it is our government and this is our President. You may disagree with one program or another–you may think (wrongly) that Obamacare is socialistic, you may think that the Patriot Act is part of a ruinous, possibly conspiratorial invasion of privacy–but this President has proved time and again that he is a strong American patriot. Any inferences otherwise may reap the whirlwind.

Chinese Fingers

I love a good headline. This one was from Reuters a few days ago.

• "China points finger at U.S. over Asia-Pacific tension"

The article describes China's pout, or rant, about the US pivot to Asia. It quotes a Chinese minister as saying:

•  "There are some countries which are strengthening their Asia Pacific military alliances, expanding their military presence in the region and frequently make the situation there tenser."

By howdy, isn't that the truth. I'm thinking that if China would stand down on its military build-up, maybe the US would go away and leave Asia to its broad enrichment, peacefully. And if they'd get their flippin' boats out of the Philippine EEZ, off Vietnamese islands, and away from Japanese islands, the tensions would fizzle faster than one of JoeAm's famous flat soufflés.

The Chinese are horrible at looking inward and accepting accountability for problems. They remind me a lot of the Catholic  Church.

Could be their cuisine needs changing . . .

Blogging Platforms

JoeAm will be moving his blog to the Word Press platform in early May when he returns from a family vacation to Hong Kong. This will facilitate a cleaner look to the blog and layered discussion threads. The blogs are much richer and deeper when commenters engage each other.  The system will require that those who wish to comment indicate their e-mail address. Addresses will be held in private. Perhaps this will also help thin out the spam that has been infesting the Blogger blog. The web site address will be released when it is opened up for public comment.

Elections

JoeAm has refrained from engaging in election discussions, not wanting to influence Filipinos who are unable to think for themselves. The Department of Immigration made clear that we foreigners are a National Security risk and will be deported if we fool around with elections. Joe does smirk in ironic pleasure as he drives past his Barangay Captain's house, which is the vote-buying center for our area. The candidates for governor of the mighty Biliran Province are playing the election game as it is always played. Without dastardly intellectual discussion.  They won't get deported, I'm quite confident.

Giant Snails and the Slime Infestation

The state of Florida in the US is doing battle with an infestation of giant African snails. The creatures will eat anything green plus your house, if it is made of stucco, because the stucco contains calcium that the snail craves for its shell.  The creatures produce 1,200 young a year, which tops even Filipinos. The snails can be horrid as the following excerpt from a Reuters article illustrates:

• In some Caribbean countries, such as Barbados, which are overrun with the creatures, the snails' shells blow out tires o the highway and turn into hurling projectiles from lawnmower blades, while their slime and excrement coat walls and pavements.

Sounds a little like Get Real Post to me.

The Florida government is looking for a good strong poisonto try to eradicate the slimey creatures.

Defense III: "Who's the Enemy Around Here, Anyway?"

Jack Ryan is famed author Tom Clancy's CIA strategist who, via a series of spy and military adventures, becomes President of the United States. We herein take our best shot at emulating the young Ryan's superior ability to digest chaos and mystery and come up with order.


This installment of our Philippine Defense dialogue will take its lead from the prior two articles. In the first, we presented a critique of the Department of National Defense layout and goals, and in the second we looked at the component AFP forces of Army, Navy and Air Force. We still have on the agenda dealing with: (a) budget, (b) intelligence security groups, and (c ) relationship with the United States. We'll deal with the US as a part of this discussion.




LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TO THIS POINT


We've learned that the AFP is administratively top heavy and grossly underfunded to accomplish the modernization goal set forward by Congress in 1995. The Navy and Air Force have been substantially neglected. The Army maintains a force of about 200,000 soldiers, each with an M-16 apparently, but the rest of the equipment is old.


We can piece together the following basic plan for the Armed Forces of the Philippines from our various readings (our analysis and words, not those of the AFP):


1. Modernize the equipment of all branches, but particularly the dilapidated Navy and Air Force, with highest priority on the Navy due to increasingly threatening incursions into Philippine Territory by Chinese ships.
2. Continue to fight rebel infestations in the jungles primarily in Mindanao (Muslim extremists and NPR extortionist gangsters).
3. Support domestic needs for police assistance, COMELEC inspections and disaster response.


Our prior discussion argued for a smaller Army, less administratively burdened, more focused on warfare than police work, and better equipped. The Navy in particular needs beefing up.


The rationale for scaling down the size and scaling up the capability of the Army comes from a simple business management principle that "secondary effort, allowed to flourish, will undermine primary effort."


That is what has happened to the Philippine military. Domestic needs have taken precedent over battle readiness. Peter was robbed to pay Paul, or the Navy and Air Force were ignored to pay for a nationwide domestic Army presence. Administrative "make work" (parades and medals and lolling about at checkpoints) took the place of preparation for conventional warfare. The military is economically broke, strewn all across the nation, poorly armed, and perhaps living complacently at the top.


So Jack Ryan . . . er, JoeAm has proposed some radically different ideas to get focused back on fighting capability. Hey, it may be a pipedream, but the dream is better than reality as it stands now:


1. Merge the three forces - Army, Navy, Air Force - into one fully coordinated combat unit rather than three units managed separately and patched together on a needs basis. This is not the United States with millions of soldiers. There are only about 20,000 Navy and 20,000 Air Force personnel. With separate administrative functions and a domestic policing agenda riding high, there's not much manpower available for fighting. So consolidate the back office and support functions. Integrate the fighting teams.
2. Pursue a "missile and drone" strategy as the driver of weapons procurement. Stop trying to arm with WWII weapons. Put platforms in place to deliver these weapons: ships, planes and commando teams.
3. Separate domestic needs (supporting COMELEC, local police assistance and disaster relief) into a Federal Police separate from the Army, with the Army assigned the job of fighting via a smaller, well-trained, well-armed component. 


It is interesting that the Army has such a widespread presence on all major Philippine islands. And almost all Army divisions cite the mission of defeating domestic rebels. Yet rebel infestations are fairly limited in numbers - small bands - and are primarily on Mindanao. It is almost as if the Army's national distribution of troops were for a different purpose, a lingering vestige of days when coups were just around the corner and the troops were needed either to suppress them, or to help carry them out.


One would certainly be inclined to ask if the domestic enemy is really so widespread within the Philippines? Or the likelihood of coups and civil unrest so strong that a widely dispersed Army is needed?


Can you maintain a huge, widespread domestic presence and arm up to face China, or other hard threats? Not with a budget that must also serve schools and building an economic infrastructure.


Other sharp questions were raised by readers during the discussions on the two prior blogs: Who, really, is the enemy, and what are we trying to accomplish? It was observed that the island structure of the archipelago mandates a much stronger Navy, and is in some respects easy to defend.


We will in this blog reflect on who is the enemy. And we will add to that how the Philippines might relate to the U.S.




THE ENEMY


We put existing or POTENTIAL enemies into five categories:


• Semi-Organized Domestic Extortionists: (probability of combat 100%; scope 25% of available fighting forces)
• Muslim extremists: (probability of combat 100%; scope 15% of available fighting forces)
• China: (probability of combat 10%; scope 100% of available fighting forces)
• Other Asian state:  (probability of combat 1%; scope 100% of available fighting forces )
• Civil unrest within the Philippines: (probability of combat 5%; scope 100% of available fighting forces)


Lets put some meat on these bones, recognizing that this exercise is wholly speculative and has no endorsement or inputs from government officials.


Semi-Organized Domestic Extortionists


These "rebel" forces eat up a lot of the Army's manpower and budget. Comprehensive peace is hard to reach because rebel demands are extreme and the organization is not unified. The persistent success of these gangs at committing murder, kidnap-for-ransom, and intimidation in support of fund-raising is testimony to the defensibility of the islands. They disappear into the jungles or merge with residents and come out to fight at any time, at any place.


Winning the war will likely come in some form other than combat as combat can only kill or capture small pods of rebel troops:


• Peace agreement making national concessions along the lines of the Mindanao agreement.
• Broader economic revitalization reducing poverty and discontent.
• Local residents turning against the gangs.


This is likely to be a long, protracted struggle. If JoeAm were writing a fictional book about the matter he'd probably be inclined to structure things as follows:


• Create Federal Police separate from the Army and make this a police action (also assign disaster response and COMELEC checkpoints to the Police).
• "Win the hearts and minds of residents" through economic improvements targeting specific regions (Northeast Mindanao) and community friendly police work (health clinics, for example).
• Continued efforts to strike a formalized written agreement that does not impose unreasonable demands on the State.
• Make military assistance available on call when large-scale actions are identified ("bring in the drones").


Muslim Extremists


Muslim extremists are attack oriented, keying in on soldiers and also extortion targets (kidnappings; beheadings for intimidation). The extremists are larger, are well-armed groups with international ties. It is the international funding and arming that separates this group from domestic gangsters and calls for military, rather than police, intervention. The US is already engaged in support of the Philippine Army with (a rumored) several hundred advisors in place on islands to the southwest. It is believed that drones are deployed for eye-in-the-sky monitoring, but not for attack (one missile attack is rumored to have been undertaken).


Winning the war will likely come in some way other than combat:


• Peace agreement carried all the way through, past Constitutional objections  (process underway).
• Broader economic revitalization reducing poverty and discontent (underway).
• Local residents turn against the extremists in favor of peace and economic development (underway).


China


This is the toughest one because the threat is pronounced yet may never materialize. The defense agreement with the United States is the backstop against a major event. It is in the best interest of the Philippines to demonstrate an increasing ability to take on her own defense in the event of limited conflict. The direction of the Philippines under this scenario would be to assume more and more of the fighting burden and to relegate the US as far into the background as possible.


What may happen regarding China? In our fictional novel, ala Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan, we might concoct some scenarios and probabilities as a starting point for refinement based on better data:


1. The Philippines will win UN arbitration; China will depart from the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone ("EEZ") peacefully (likelihood 15%).
2. The Philippines will win UN arbitration; China will  not depart from the EEZ (likelihood 85%).
3. China will land troops on unoccupied islands within the EEZ and start building residential or commercial structures (85%)
4. China will evict Philippine residents and troops from occupied islands within the EEZ and take control of new territory forcibly (5%).
5. China will block Philippine ships from sailing in parts of the West Philippine Sea (50%).
6. China will fire warning shots on Philippine ships to block them from sailing (20%).
7. China will fire on a Philippine ship or ships causing Filipino casualties (5%).
8. China will occupy the Philippine mainland subsequent to escalation of localized fighting (1%).
9. China will wage cyber-war against the Philippines (95% for harassment, 5% for destructive acts such as bringing down power, communications and other infrastructure).


This is so much pie in the sky speculation. But at least it starts and organizes a thinking process.


Other Asian State


If one looks around the cusp of Asia, in which the Philippines is centrally located, it is difficult to imagine armed conflict breaking out between the Philippines and any state other than Malaysia. Relations are generally good and there are few direct conflicts. Malaysia is on the chalk board due to frictions caused by Sultan Kiram's attempt to physically occupy land in Sabah that he claims. If such frictions were to grow more serious perhaps there is a scenario that would see the Philippines and Malaysia in direct military conflict. It would likely be a short-term violent flare-up, more pushing and shoving than territorial conquest. Contingency plans should include this possibility.


Massive civil unrest within the Philippines


It was only a short time ago that President Arroyo declared martial law in Mindanao. It was limited in scope and time. On one hand, it is difficult to imagine widespread unrest in today's civil Philippines. But also, given the public's penchant to vote for dynastic names rather than platform, it is easy to imagine another authoritarian president seeking permanent rule, and using the military as his arm of discipline to quell protest. Indeed, it might be advisable to ensure against such a scenario by pulling troops back from widespread distribution in the Philippines to minimize military use during civil unrest. The military should be staging for the kinds of conventional warfare incidents that are threatening today.




RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES


Many Filipinos are understandably suspicious of any relationship with the United States. Feelings range from outright condemnation of any US military presence to pragmatic acceptance given China's incursions into Philippine territory.


Sovereignty. Does an alliance with the US impose on Philippine sovereignty? I suppose it does in the sense that the Philippines must consider that the US traditionally demands autonomy over her military. The degree of latitude given to the Philippines to "direct" US troops would be limited. But presumably the US would respect Philippine guidance pertaining to activities in the Philippines.


The US has struck a defense agreement with Korea that puts Korea in the driver's seat to control deployment of US military assets. It is a model the Philippine might aspire toward. 


One can imagine this dialogue taking place:


• American General: "We recommend flying stealth bombers over South Korea from the US to send a message to North Korea that they are within striking distance."
• Korean General: "Wait one." ("That's Army for give me a little time to converse with someone.") "Roger that. We agree. When can we expect them to arrive?"


The American General would not say "We're going to fly our bombers into Korea." Does one lose autonomy if one retains approval authority? I think not if that approval authority is specific and clear.


Or this conversation:


• Korean General: "We recommend flying stealth bombers over South Korea from the US to send a message to North Korea that they are within striking distance."
• American General: "Wait one. . . . Negative on that, General. Our chief says that's too provocative for us."


Does one lose autonomy if one respects the partner's stance? Hmmmm. Technically, yes, to the extent restraint of action occurs.


Does that mean one ought not have alliances?


No. It means one must be willing to embark on the give and take of decision making with a partner who may have different viewpoints or  interests, and to remain respectful of the alliance and its overall value. In other words, don't be a 100 percenter and demand that the alliance march to the Philippine beat alone.


Perhaps it would benefit the Philippines to look within and recognize that its own acts can determine what the relationship with the United States is likely to be. If the Philippines demonstrates a good grasp of strategies, tactics and execution during training drills, and becomes and equal partner rather than student, then the US is more likely to grant the Philippines greater leeway to request and receive assistance in the form of weaponry or technology or command control.


Autonomy demands that the Philippines display "world class" fighting attitude and skill, and the ability to work in forthright partnership with allies.


Forthright partnership was not on display when the American minesweeper ran aground in Tubattaha Reef. The Philippine military did not step in to break the contentious relationship that flared up between Park Rangers and officers aboard the US ship. Nor did the Americans go directly to some standing military liaison contact in the Philippines to get relief. It was an acrimonious incident, not one of partnership. Not one of good, quick communication and resolution.


You can't have that kind of separation, and failure to communicate and execute, in battle.


Right now the two allies are dancing a very awkward dance.


The Philippines can take control of the relationship if her military leaders demonstrate the aptitude necessary to command respect from American military brass. A widespread domestic policing force and woeful sea and air power are unlikely to command respect among those looking for fighting capability.  If blogger JoeAm can see what is going on with regard to the Philippine military, the US has a crystal-clear insight into the lack of combat readiness that characterizes the overall capability of Philippine forces.


The Philippines and the US do collaborate on strategic matters, but these appear to be in the form of structured conferences. Formal exchanges and briefings that confirm mutual interest. But not down and dirty work together to hammer out scenarios, contingencies and responses. The exception is the fighting of terrorism in the Southwest. It is difficult to know how that is going and what kind of mutual engagement and respect exists there.


US/Philippine training exercises are held regularly to teach troops how to converse with one another and act as a team on shore invasions or disaster recovery. But how ready is the PARTNERSHIP to address the China scenarios outlined above. Somewhere between formal top line discussions of mutual interest and in-the-field practice there is an arena where battles will be won or lost: strategies and tactical scenarios  . . . and responses. Including the deceptions and feints that are crucial to good outcomes. And good information, from drones or spies or reconnaissance missions.


These fighting plans should drive equipment-purchase priorities. Right now, it would appear that equipment needs are being driven by domestic leaders tallying up hardware they'd like, without connection to battle plans.


The Philippines can drive the establishment of a scenario-driven relationship and retain considerable authority over the how the fighting alliance will work. Authority over how the alliance works does not mean cock-fight posturing. It means taking the initiative to be aggressive about thinking things through, and inviting the US into the process.


Scenarios and responses first. Understanding what the US can bring to the table second. Philippine equipment and training plans flow from that.

Internet Invasion: "The Reds Are Coming!"

The blogging discussion about the Sultan's Sabah escapade has morphed. When the incursion first began, a vocal alliance of strange bedfellows spoke loudest. We saw Muslims seeking satisfaction for years of neglect allied, strangely, with Filipino uber-patriots seeking expansion of Philippine territory to include what appears rightfully to belong to the Philippines, if you look at land title apart from the will of the residents.

When Malaysia got the Sultan's band on the run, however, a different set of voices arose. These were the moderate Filipinos who believe Sabah belongs to Sabahans and peace is more important than claim, along with rah rah Malaysians pretty much saying "in your face", Philippines. These two factions were not united, they just were louder than the retreating pro-Sultan gang.

Last Friday, for the first time, the incident dropped off of Rappler's roll-up headlines in favor of the pound-for-pound boxing ratings. Given the news coming out of Malaysia about apparent extreme brutality toward Filipinos there, the story will likely come back. It is tragic. 

But what I want to write about today is a third group of voices that was pronounced during the first period when tensions ran high. The voices had a consistent theme: run down President Aquino and run down the Philippines. If you read the messages, they seemed strikingly similar. Good use of English. Perspective from "above" or outside the Philippines. Jingoistic use of insults and slurs. No constructive ideas. Clearly out to smear.

Here is a typical comment, this one from a "Rudy Sentosa:

_______________

But before one blaming Malaysian Government, take a look at PH's Government, and how does PH government care about their countrymen. PH's government is more deplorable than the Malaysian's.

Malaysians slaughter those they consider as risk to their country. But Filipinos are the ones who watch the whole slaughtering of their own countrymen while doing practically nothing.

Anybody watched the movie "SILENT OF THE LAMB"? Pinoys are the lambs who are sent into slaughter house obediently and silently.

 Your IMPOTENT PRESIDENTE has more share of responsibility  than the Malaysians do for those BLOODS.

_______________

Pretty nasty stuff.

A commenter suggested that Santosa was from "Unit 61398", the Chinese military hacking operation. I started paying attention to the well-spoken messages denigrating the Philippines.

These are the screen-names that I found peculiar. I have absolutely no knowledge about the legitimacy or illegitimacy of any of them. I just note the striking similarity of message and tone. I shall call them "PEOPLE WITH AN AGENDA".

• topolcats
• Zootalaws
• Manloloko
• Rudy Sentosa
• Keith Cruz
• Manuel C. Diaz

Now the names themselves fall into two categories: (1) the made-up "o" names and (2) the cornball Spanish names, often representing themselves as Filipino but giving themselves away by referring to the Philippines or Filipinos as "you".

It fires my imagination.

I think of that Chinese military unit in Shanghai that hacked US newspapers. I think of the Chinese strategy to divide the ASEAN alliance to isolate negotiating partners and put them in a weak position, and consistent with that strategy, to weaken the Philippines as a negotiating partner. I think of a thousand troublemakers with a keyboard, an internet connection and an agenda and I think of the swarm of unkind opinions that could fly, like locusts, into the free Philippine dialogue.

I had previously designated four groups as threats to Philippine well-being because they are attacking the framework of stability that President Aquino is attempting to solidify:

• The anti blogging community
• China
• The Catholic Church
• The corrupt

And I suppose we could add on a seasonal basis, strictly for political gain, UNA and other election candidates who employ the campaign technique of tearing down the incumbent President in order to try to demean his party's candidates.

Well, the anti blogging community is really not much of a factor. 

But if you add the PEOPLE WITH AN AGENDA into this group, or imagine it expanding, then the complaining voices start to dominate the discussion. It is a real shift in what the on-line community brings to the Philippines. From a positive people's advocacy, a "check and balance" as a part of good governance, to a negative, condemning the character of the Philippines and the nation's President.

One other thought that comes to mind as I find myself slipping into the role of Chicken Little raising my voice to say "The sky is falling!" or "The Reds are coming! The Reds are coming!".  I reflect on the era of Senator Joseph McCarthy's communist purge in the U.S. in the early 1950's. He hurt innocent people in his obsession to protect.

So "the sky is falling!", or "the Reds are coming!", is not exactly the national attitude we want to see arise.

But how do we promote a positive, unified Philippines when the internet forum of public discourse becomes a cold war battlefield? When we see rational discourse tipped negative by troublemakers? When we see freedom of speech turned inside out to shade and shape our ability to think freely.

The Cybercrime legislation does not touch upon this

I suppose the most basic step would be to ban use of aliases. Make sure each participant in the internet dialogue is known and legitimate. Those hosting discussion forums (Rappler, JoeAm, Raissa Robles, et. al.) would be required to certify the authenticity of correspondents. This would be a nightmare to administer and I suspect the mischief makers might still find a way in.

Would JoeAm reveal himself to help weed out the troublemakers?

For the good of the Philippines, yes.

The internet is dynamic and changing. And we know some nations are working on strategies to wage battle through the internet grid.

We ought to recognize, even at this early date, that Philippine internet discussion forums are NOT representative of the peoples of the Philippines. Even today these forums may be stocked with shills, trolls, spies, saboteurs and malcontents.

Conversations that are critical of the Philippines and Philippine leaders should be read with some measure of wariness, especially if they are detached from any constructive suggestions for building the nation.

Discretion . Awareness. Resistance to easy criticisms devoid of solution.

It is important not to get suckered into helping divide the Philippines.

Unity is a conscious decision. A commitment. And it sometimes requires sacrifice.

Unit 61398: Is the Philippines "In Play"?

Building Housing Military Unit 61398

Unit 61398 is a Chinese military operation. It has been pinpointed as occupying an office building in China from which hacking of American newspapers and government agencies has originated.

These are official government acts. They are not anonymous hackers with bizarre ideals. It appears that China has officially authorized aggressive Chinese spying, theft and harassment of other states via the internet.

All loudly denied of course.

One is inclined to wonder if the U.S. has similar activities going on. Is that why the response from America is rather tepid? As if something must be done to pacify the newspapers that were hacked, not as if officials were horridly offended and considered this tantamount to spying or cyber-war.

I think cyber security (defense) and cyber warfare (offense) are top priority for the United States. I'm guessing the U.S. military and spy agencies practice their techniques on real-life targets of opportunity.

Iran has been subject to significant hacking. I'm sure most have a short list of the "usual suspects": Israel or the U.S.

So with an open internet, we have the platform for open roaming and spying and hijinks. That is, theft, harassment, and even destructive acts. China's work so far appears to be dedicated to acquiring information, not destructive acts.

If you think this is happening only "out there" and it is not relevant to the Philippines, think again. You are likely to meet this offensive behavior some point soon. 

Close Up

Maybe even now, if you read Rappler or The Inquirer or other discussion threads and find the pro-China pablum popping up, or denigration of the Philippines. Are missionaries from China out to sow divisive propaganda within Philippine social media?

I would rather ask the question, WHY NOT? Why would China not seek to sow discord between the Philippines and America? Or between the Philippine people and the Philippine government?

Wouldn't you, if you had an aggressive agenda of divide and conquer?

I am amused that so many activities within the Philippines fall into line with Chinese aims:

• Senators Legarda and Santiago taking the U.S. to task publicly over Tubbataha.

• Leftist political organizations trying to throw the U.S. out of the Philippines for good.

• Get Real blogger benigno relentlessly seeking to undermine legitimate Philippine agencies.

It's as if they do not grasp what is happening.

Now let me be perfectly clear. I think none of these cases has any direct tie to China at all. My point is that Filipinos need to be very clear on what is going on here so that they are working in the best interest of the Philippines and not inadvertently aiding and abetting the enemy. We are likely not to know when China is making incursions into social media or performing active hacking. 

China is the enemy, right?

This Call Center is Not Customer Friendly

Is that too hard a word for you?

What description would you put on China to describe her relationship to the Philippines?

Petulant friend? Greedy friend? Bossy friend?

In my mind China is not a friend because the Chinese are not interested in Philippine well-being. Even if diplomats of both the Philippines and China plaster over their acts with words of friendship.

China is not camped on Philippine rocks because she has the best interest of the Philippines in mind. Or really cares that much about Chinese/Philippine commercial linkages and trade.

Unit 61398 is not interested in Philippine well-being. Unit 61398 is interested in theft and information useful to the waging of influence. Influence is one step short of war. This is a totally different kind of conflict. No battleships or artillery or missiles or drones. Not rules of fair warfare. Just spying and destabilization aimed at target nations.

Divide and conquer.

For myself, I read the discussion thread in this recent article in Rappler ("China rejects PH arbitration move") or look at the intense and rising volume of attack-spam that infests my blog site daily, and I am suddenly faced with a stark understanding.

This is real.

Unit 31398 is real.

Perhaps it has begun. Not war, yet. Influence. Perhaps the Philippines is "in play".

Certainly it is prudent to expect that the more assertive the Philippines is in pursuing it's claim to lands within the 200 nm exclusive economic zone, the more aggressive China is likely to become at exerting influence internally within the Philippines.

My advice, to myself as much as anyone:

Be cool. Expect anything. Don't take all words as forthright truth. Expect manipulations.

And be wary of people promoting thinking that is consistent with China's strategic aim, to divide and conquer. That includes congressmen and left-wingers and bloggers. And those who comment on blogs.

Do what can be done to promote unity rather than division.

The Philippines Should Turn Predator, Like China

Here is what we are coming to understand. 

Chinese Attitudes Toward Japan

China is engaged in a coordinated national effort aimed at acquiring additional resources as cheaply as possible. Stealing of other nation's lands is among the tactics included in the thrust. China's initiatives are as follows:

• Develop Chinese mining and resource production.

• Hoard the world's rare earth minerals critical in the manufacture of electronic goods. China can cut the world off from rare earth minerals at any time for any reason.

• Invest in mining around the world with major efforts in South America and Australia. Ecology is not a primary concern. Acquisition of cheap minerals in bulk is the driving force.

• Smuggle ores from lands such as the Philippines where corruption allows this. "If we can get it, it is honest, because we need it."

• Claim the entire West Philippine Sea, even if it is within other nations' exclusive economic zones. That is, even if it belongs rightfully to others.

• Step up vocal and military might to intimidate smaller nations. Use a divide and conquer strategy to keep other nations from gaining power. Military officials are permitted to use aggressive and threatening language.

• Embark on aggressive military-based cyber-spying and harassment to enter private and public computers around the world to gain information or create havoc. For example, U.S. newspapers have been attacked as have government computers.

Many of us are perplexed with China's incivility and obstinacy. It is rather frustrating to have China sitting on rocks so close to the Philippine coast. Most Filipinos I am sure wish China would simply get off the rocks and go away.

She won't.

Even if the Philippines wins its UN arbitration, there is no enforcement mechanism, and China can explain away everything with sharp, challenging words condeming anyone who is not on the China path

I don't see a Philippines that has its act wholly together to deal with that. Most people just watch Secretary Del Rosario push back. One man with a tough job. Some seem to help China, whether inadvertently or purposefully, I can't tell.

The U.S. defense agreement is crucial to Philippine well-being. But even knowledgeable people like Senators Legarda and Santiago are busy driving wedges between the US and Philippines over something as trivial as a boat stuck on a reef (not trivial in terms of the value of reefs; trivial in terms of the shake-out in world order that is occurring).

I've argued that the Philippines should stand up for its own interests and use the might of the U.S. as a defensive backstop in case China's greed goes beyond intimidation and "occupancy around the edges", as is now occurring. It need not bow to the U.S. because its interests are perfectly aligned with those of America. The two nations should be doing more to put this alliance together properly. As I've written:

• People like Senator Santiago should sit down and shut up about the VFA. If there is a need to renegotiate it, do so out of the hearing of the sensationalist press.

• People like Senator Legarda should think about the bigger and more important national strategy of building a strong defensive alliance rather than engage in public acts (possibly so that she, personally, can gain votes) that disparage that alliance, as she proposes to do with hearings about the Tubbataha incident.

• The awkward coordination that is occurring regarding Tubbataha between the U.S. and Philippines is a horrible representation of a strong alliance. The U.S. is secretive. The Philippines is trying to project that it is in charge of things, the top dog in the matter. No, no, people. Everything you do should be structured to prove that this is an effective TEAM. That both nations are on the same TEAM.

But those issues can be set aside for now.

I would like to suggest an initiative that can be driven entirely by the Philippines that will counter China's ridiculously offensive aggression.

• The Philippines should slip into the economic hole that is being created between China and Japan. Find every instance where Japan is manufacturing in China now and try to get that company to move to the Philippines.

Concurrently, get the Philippine industrial welcome in order. Designate where the firms can relocate to on an expedited basis (Subic, or near Clark where Yokohama already has a plant, in Cavite where Japanese companies are looking to set up shop, and elsewhere within the Philippines). Make sure those locations are set to accelerate and assist relocations, not throw up short-sighted roadblocks seeking near-term fees from companies coming in. Indeed, GIVE value rather than try to squeeze the Japanese companies. Offer tax incentives to ease the cost of relocating. MARKET the Philippines.

As for the 40% ownership requirement, establish a national trust to own the Philippine 60% of each company, funded in partly by the Japanese companies themselves and partly by the Philippine government with the trust run like an investment bank. That is, the trust would not be engaged in the running of the business proper, but would be engaged in monitoring the company's finances and operations so that investor money (Philippine taxpayer money) would be properly cared for.

If Philippine investment bankers and attorneys can't figure out how to structure such an animal, call in American investment banking expertise. They can paper over anything, even Constitutions.

Japanese manufacturing companies may not be the only targets for such a strategic initiative. South Korea may also prefer to establish manufacturing plants in a nation backstopped by American reasonableness, over Chinese self-serving craziness. Or American companies whose executives recognize that things in China are going south.

And service companies will also come over behind the manufacturing companies (banks, insurers, etc., Philippine laws permitting).

If China wants to destabilize relations with other nations, the Philippines should go after the available jewels the way China goes after Philippine resources.

Purposefully. Without hesitation or regret.

China need not be the only nation with a predatory strategy.

Angry Maude Rips Two Senator Ladies

Guest Article

By Maude Garrison

Insecurity is a beast. It eats at one's innards like acid, gnawing away at one's sense of self and the ability to see things objectively. Envy is its partner in crime.

Insecurity appears to reside in the Philippine Senate. Amongst the brightest and best schooled and most capable minds in the nation. It's spawn, envy, appears deeply held by certain members of that esteemed body, and I'm sorry to say they both wear skirts.

I noticed that Jojo last week endorsed Senator Legarda as a friend of President Aquino. I ran around hiding news articles from him to keep him from blowing his stack and switching to Nancy Binay. Then he found out anyway. Fortunately, he did not switch to Binay. He just shook his head in disgust.

So I have to deal double the grief on this blog, one helping for me and one for Jojo.

I'm dismayed . . . no, let me be truthful here, as ladies are occasionally inclined to be . . . I'm incensed to see Senator Legarda sucking up to voters at the expense of my homeland and at the expense of Philippine security. She is either doing crass politicking or she has she has joined Senator Santiago in the ranks of the apparently insecure and envy riddled legislators who are raising a "sovereignty" stink regarding an American ship stuck on a reef.

What a horrible threat to the sovereignty of the Philippines, eh? A boat accidentally ran into a reef!  Man the battle stations. Arm the cutter. Get those jets in the air as soon as they get here from Korea. Tell Japan quick quick to give us the 10 boats they promised.

After all, this horrid intrusion into our national ego is AMERICAN. It is military. It smacks of imperialistic hubris. The nerve, running into the reef by mistake. AN APOLOGY IS NOT ENOUGH. NO, WE WANT BLOOD. WE WANT . . . WE WANT . . . WE WANT . . well, I don't know, but money is not enough, apology is not enough.

Oh, yes. WE WANT A HEARING, A LYNCH MOB.  AN EMOTION STOKED SHOWCASE OF AMERICAN NEGLIGENCE AND ARROGANCE. THAT'S WHAT WE WANT. Our sovereignty is under attack! The nation is collapsing! The sky is falling!

Oh my God! The humiliation, THE HUMILIATION to the Philippines!

How can we ever recover?

No wonder men don't take we girls seriously. Men are overloaded on testosterone and we get hysteria.

Meanwhile let us duck our eyes from those Chinese camped intentionally on Philippine rocks right over there. 

We don't need no stinkin' hearing on that, or apology from them.

Well, for the Lady Legarda, it is election season, and so waving the "I'll stand up to America" placard is great for votes. Yeah, it smacks a little of prostitution, I admit, selling your friends down the river for a few votes. But these are politicians, I suppose we can't expect much better than that from them. I certainly don't expect better of my US congressmen who trek the treason line about every committee meeting.

But one is certainly inclined to ask, which is REALLY the bigger threat to sovereignty? A boat that accidentally runs into a reef or a senator who disparages and undermines an important defensive alliance protecting Philippine territory and autonomy?

Now Senator Santiago, perhaps we have come to expect this from her, a role model for my own occasionally indignant outbursts. But Senator Legarda? 

Senator Santiago is re-visiting the burr that has been under her saddle since the US spirited Private Smith from the Philippines before he could be lynched and Nicole embarrassed Filipinos by trekking off to American to find her sunshine there. "The humiliation! The humiliation!" Senator Santiago shrieked at the time, regarding the imbalanced imprisonment clause in the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). So her personal credibility is staked to having that document shredded. A Singaporean shipping company, working on a contract for the US Navy, dumps sewerage into Manila Bay and it becomes a reason to attack the VFA. Not toss the shipping company from the Philippines.

Rationality, to the insecure, takes on a whole new dimension. It is slathered in envy and self-pity. And when it gets beyond civil, it is called hysteria. 

What is it with this bristling anti-Americanism that arises every day in some way in the Philippines? Big ways, little ways. What is it about this emotional neediness that has the Philippines always trying to appear taller by bringing America down?

You say I am sensitive, perhaps? Overly defensive?

Yes. Yes, I am. One can only take so much of this ridiculous immature schtick. And it is relentless.

So what do you lady Senators want from America? You want Americans to die to protect the Philippines, right? That's your agenda if China invades Palawan?

Or do you discount those deaths because "its really for America's interest"?

What ungrateful . . . can I use the word "wenches"?

Sorry, ladies. But it is my nephew you are talking about sending out to die. A seven tour Iraq veteran, father of three beautiful children. That is my friends from high school whose names are etched in gold letters in a black marble wall in Washington D.C. that you hold so cheaply. That you disparage so easily for personal political gain.

You want to know how to get an American angry? Demean his or her soldiers. Not the generals or their political bosses. Demean away. But lay off the working stiffs out on a boat on the other side of the planet from home who got a wrong map or read a map wrong and plowed into a reef. The working stiffs whose job it is to die for you and your family.

Yes. Yes, I am defensive when you senators rip into American troops and call them a threat to Philippine sovereignty. What kind of load are you consigning to them, the need to both defend the Philippines and carry your insecure, envious baggage, too?

It's a little thing when a blog commenter fires off a "go home to America" taunt at Jojo. Hey, consider the source.  It is a big thing when a senator of the Philippines loses her grace and dignity and undermines a critical alliance, causing the Chinese to roll doubled up in laughter at how easy it is to manipulate these running dog alliances. That is a threat both to the Philippines and the sailors on the boat because it encourages the brash Chinese to be even more brash.

Oh, senator ladies, you say this animostity toward the US is historical, this resentment of things American? Right, right, like those racist Americans from 114 years ago.

Nothing has changed in the Philippines in 114 years, so you figure nothing has changed in the US, either? Check again to see who is President these days and tell me the US is the same racist nation it was in 1898.

Or you mention those WWII American heathens who  were so brutal in Manila on the way to preserving Tagalog as the national language of the Philippines instead of Japanese, and who prevented the ladies of the Philippines from becoming career comfort women.

Well, I have a book for you historical resenters. It is called "The Power of Now" by Eckhart Tolle. He lets us in on a marvelous secret. The past is done. Over. Gone. It doesn't exist. People who live there are dysfunctional at best and crazy at worst. 

Senator Legarda wants to hold a hearing about the Reef accident. Here's a quote from her as reported in the Inquirer:

• “We’re soft. We appear soft. And we should not be soft because this is a test of how we value our sovereignty and how we value what is ours.  Because if they can just step this way and say ‘aray’ (ouch), then move on, then we will not be respected by other countries.” 

You are not soft Senator. It's worse than that. You are disloyal to an ally for political expediency. You undermine an important defensive alliance for votes.

Trust me, that laughing dog China is not respecting you either. They are laughing.

You get tough with a vital ally that accidentally rams a boat into a hidden reef at 2 am in the night.

You meanwhile avert your eyes from the nation that  - - - coldly, calculatingly . . . wants to steal your wealth, the oil in Philippine territory. In broad daylight. And screw any reefs in the neighborhood, or turtles, or fish. This particular nation has ships blocking an atoll and is tossing Philippine fisherman seeking shelter there back out into the rough seas. An atoll that is 124 nautical miles from Luzon, inside the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone that is PHILIPPINE TERRITORY.

Where's your hearing on that?

Hide your eyes. Duck and cover. China is a big authoritative bully, not that patsy America who is a fat and lazy friend, easy for ragging on. What is the term for someone who avoids the bully but beats up on the vulnerable guy? I'd look it up but I lost my Thesaurus and besides I'm on a roll here.

Here are some words from Senator Santiago (same source) as she dissed the U.S. Ambassador's apology as fake and manipulative:

• “I am concerned that the American offer of compensation is made to appear, not as a dictate of legal obligation under international law, but as an indulgence in American magnanimity.”

• “International law is clear that whether or not there was negligence or fault on the part of the US warship, under the principle of state responsibility, the US government is responsible for the partial destruction of Tubbataha Reef, which some say will need 250 years to be fully restored,”

What part of "protecting your own interests" does the good Senator expect the U.S. to abrogate. And what part of "insult" to an AMBASSADOR does the undiplomatic lady not grasp. And where, Senator Santiago, is the outrage that Tubbataha is the ONLY AND LAST preserved reef in the vast ecological wonderland surrounding the Philippines? What have senators been doing all these years as this precious coral that takes 250 years to grow has been dynamited, hacked to pieces, smuggled, and ground up to pave driveways?

How about a hearing on THAT, dear hysterical ladies. Who was not doing their preservation job, senators?

How about a hearing on why words of "treason" were thrown around between Senators Enrile and Trillanes and FA Secretary Del Rosario about the China back door fiasco. What about Senators who divulge state secrets in a public hissy fit on the floor of the Senate. Does THAT not undermine Philippine sovereignty? Where is the Senate hearing on THAT, apparently negligent, lazy, insecure and envious lady senators?

No, no. Let's go after the Americans. Loudly. Front page stuff. 

Insecurity drives envy. Envy drives anger. Anger causes you to cut off your nose to spite your face. It's an American expression, although Sancho Panza probably used it, too. Another one is tossing the baby out with the bath water.

From the bamboo huts that my neighbors live in to the halls of the hallowed Senate, the modus operandi is the same. Piss on the people who can help you and ignore the thieves and miscreants in your midst.

It is soooooo  sooooooo  . . . where's the flicking thesaurus?

Forgetabout it. Use your own words.

I'm outta here.

Screw the kickapoo. I need skotch.