America and the Philippines: Not Ready for War

Preface

This discussion is predicated on a worst-case scenario, not a prediction. It considers that China is aggressively pursuing expansion into resource rich areas. The Philippines is a resource rich area and militarily weak. Filipinos have a love/hate relationship with America, the security backstop if the Philippines is attacked.

Wars start when nation A provokes a response from nation B, then declares that it must attack nation B for self defense.  The Philippines is Nation B.  The current tense situation in the West Philippine Sea is dangerous, and planning ought to consider a worst case scenario.

I believe the Philippine actions to this point have been firm, mature and well-considered. Law over gun is the best way to resolve a dispute. The problem is that all nations must read "right and wrong" the same way to subscribe to a law, and China reads by a different set of values. I cannot imagine China backing off from occupancy of Scarborough Shoal, for her entire nine-dash strategy collapses. Therefore, I carry a certain amount of pessimism that armed conflict can be avoided.

An Overview

I am troubled, as an American citizen, with the attitudes I see in the Philippines regarding Americans and America. America is partly responsible for the development of the attitudes, without doubt. Both parties have to engage to change them.

Let me break this down.

1. It seems to me the Philippine and American governments have a very constructive relationship going on. Mutually beneficial, aligned, open channels of conversation.

2. The extreme leftists in the Philippines have a pro-communist, anti-American agenda, and that is fine. I'm not talking about them. They are indeed extremists, and, although occasionally loud and abrasive, are largely marginalized by their stridency and lack of reason.

3. I am troubled by the popular assignment of the term "arrogant" to all American acts that people disagree with. It has what I would call racist underpinnings, stereotypes that Filipinos carry around with them so that, when the US or individual Americans do something disagreeable, it fulfills and reinforces the bias.  Good, well-intended people get painted by an unkind brush. The brush paints America unkindly.

4. The US has a standing defense agreement with the Philippines and, although the government finds value in this relationship, a large segment of the Filipino people are put off or angered by it. It carries the smack of an enduring colonialist presence and meddling. This gets amplified every time Senator Santiago goes on another rant against the Visiting Forces Agreement ("VFA").

5. The US has fought three wars recently in countries where large segments of the broad population did not want American troops occupying their land: Viet Nam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. This is very different than the European experience in World War II, where America's presence, and sacrifice of lives, were appreciated by most people.

6. Filipinos have a legitimate right to be wary of American involvement within their country, and even resentful. The U.S. waged brutal war in the Philippine American War, ran a powerful, explosives heavy campaign in Manila at the end of World War II, reneged on promises to give Philippine soldiers the same benefits as Filipinos after that war ("The Rescission Act"), and have not resolved the matter of toxic pollution at Subic and Clark. Then we have incidents like the Nicole "rape" and a minesweeper on a reef that tends to aggravate bad feelings.

If you look at the American side of things, you find the following aspects:

1. The US did not care all that much about getting thrown out of the Philippines in 1991. She had other priorities and essentially let the Philippines float free.  The US gives minimum aid to the Philippines.

2. Most Americans know little about the Philippines, and might not even be able to identify the country on a map. It may vaguely be in the back of their minds that it is similar to some South American countries, poor and corrupt and not at all modern. They might know of the storm deaths from regular reports. They know nothing about the Philippine American War, nothing about WWII engagement here, and nothing about Nicole or other incidents.

3. Some in the US military leadership undoubtedy have a bad impression of Philippine willingness to fight based on the nation's withdrawal from Iraq when the shooting began. The Philippines was the first nation to bail out of the "Coalition of the Willing" that was ostensibly put together to fight the global war on terror. The US military may have the Philippines in the same bucket as South Vietnamese, Iraqi, or Afghanistan troops: "not to be relied upon in battle".

4. US/Philippine military exercises occur regularly, and I suspect are generally handled professionally, from both sides. Pipelines of communication should be clear if the two nations join in fighting, and the ability to work side-by-side should be strong. For example, a Philippine ground unit should be able to direct an American air strike or helicopter support.

5. The waging of war against terrorists in Mindanao has been carried out effectively. American advisers and Filipino soldiers have had good success at suppressing terrorist acts in the Philippines.

6. The US has a standing defense agreement with the Philippines. If the Philippines is attacked, the US will engage militarily to defend the Philippines.

The Problem Here

So what do we have then. I have only anecdotal evidence to go on. These are my personal impressions.

• We have significant popular resentment in the Philippines toward America and mild resentment among American military leadership toward the Philippines. The trust level is weak. The respect level is weak.

• Filipinos respect American military capability and power. They don't respect American demeanor of being the boss. They don't respect anything that smacks of a "colonialist" attitude.

• Americans don't trust that Filipinos would fight well or aggressively.

That is not a good foundation for this alliance.

As an American citizen, as I said in a prior blog, I see no reason for American troops to fight in the Philippines, especially knowing how much resentment exists. I suspect a lot of Americans feel the same way. They might say:  "What do I care if the Philippines is overrun by China? It is irrelevant to me either way."

And Filipinos want dearly to stand apart from their colonizer, to get to the point where they don't really care about America because they are actively engaged in doing things of, by and for Fiipinos. You know, independently.

The U.S. government sees strategic need to restrain China from what appears to be an ambitious global territorial expansion. The Philippines wishes to preserve her independence and sovereignty. That is where interests of the Philippines and America join.

Yet, the two peoples, Filipino and American, do not like being forced together.

It seems to me impossible to convince Filipinos that it is in their interest to let go of the past and appreciate the sacrifice American soldiers are willing to make to defend the Philippines. To get rid of this irritating notion that the US is only out for her own interests (as if that were wrong). To actually "respect" what America is willing to do, and what her citizens are willing to sacrifice. I've tried the argument over and over again, and getting an expression of appreciation from many Filipinos is almost impossible. It is overwhelmed by resentments.

Even people I enjoy and respect, intelligent people -- bloggers angela at StuartSantiago, manuelbuencamino at Pro-Pinoy, or Riassa Robles, for example -- start any discussion about America with a low-grade resentment of things American, history American, or American "arrogance".

Resentment and respect.

I comprehend the resentment. US self interest is heavy-handed and insensitive.

But it becomes a very real, practical, tangible factor in deciding whether or not a war is winable. China understands this and you can expect her to do all that is possible to drive a wedge between the Philippines and U.S. To make sure Filipinos dislike America (the leftist rant) and Americans are not enthralled about a fight with China in the Philippines.

I think President Aquino, by not speaking up to tout the importance of the US alliance as background to the minesweeper accident, missed an opportunity to quell resentments. The accident could have been used to posture partnership, but instead has been allowed to contribute to the fester of bad will.

I also think President Obama could do more to solidify the alliance by visiting the Philippines. I'd heartilyrecommend it, in fact, although Brother Barak is more likely to invite me to play pick-up basketball than ask me to opine on his international priorities.

Filipinos crave recognition. Give them recognition.

I'm not sure there is any higher priority in Asia right now.

But as it is now, with no national effort from either country to build good will, I think to myself, if fighting breaks out, give the Philippines boats and guns and drones. But fighting troops? No way. War is nasty, it is hell, it is deadly, it is unpredictable. Mistakes are made. People die.

Who's in the foxhole with me? A guy who holds a grudge toward my grandfather and father, thinks "arrogance" with each remark I make, and resents my country?

What it Takes to Win a War

It takes 100% commitment to win a war.

This commitment can only be achieved if the Philippines is able to convert Filipino resentment to respect for America. Respect for America is needed to get the people of America to support sending troops to the Philippines to fight.

And America needs to recognize that operating solely for American interests is a sure way to build resentment. Clean-up Subic and Clark. Be candid about the USS Guardian. Give the Philippines a little love.

But here's my main point:

If Filipinos want Americans to fight and die for defense of the Philippines, the people of the Philippines have to make sure Americans understand that Filipinos are worth dying for.

Failure to subordinate resentment to respect would, in battle, lead to backbiting and animosity under the wild, unpredictable heat of fire, and a wholly negative fighting experience.

Sorry.

Been there, done that.

My Presidents

I consider myself blessed. I have two presidents, and both of them are good people. After GW Bush and GM Arroyo, or course, just about anybody would be a step up. But both of my presidents are major steps up. Like big, like constructive. Like way up.

Let me tell you a little bit about my presidents.

First of all, they are alike and they are not alike.

Here's how they are alike

• They both have leader's ego, which is confidence mixed with personable graciousness. Confidence helps project competence. Graciousness  inspires as it  brings others warmly into activities.

• Both display a capable kind of leadership that impels them to appoint people to jobs who are good at those jobs. They see competence in others as a gift rather than a threat.

• Both delegate well, giving their subordinates wide latitude to manage their departments, relying on them for advice, and making thoughtful executive decisions.

• Both are honest men, bright, with values inclusive of God and family.

Here's how they are not alike

• One is tall, the other not. One is resistant to sunburn, the other moreso than me. One is married, the other not.  One plays basketball, the other chases women.

• One is gifted with Lincolnesque speech, issuing lofty words in the American king's English. The other is more like Mark Twain, writing and speaking the local dialect. One preaches with Baptist fire and brimstone bombast, the other natters like Auntie Mildred at the sewing bee.

• One operates from a soaring, hopeful part of the heart, extolling the virtues of liberty and diversity and the American dream. The other operates from a somewhat tighter part of heart, extolling the victories of jailing people and imposing libel laws, with a lot of braggadocio to enhance one's standing.

• Intellectually, President Obama is like a college professor, conceptual. President Aquino is like an engineer, detail-minded.

Here's why they are both remarkable leaders

• History welcomed both with desperate need.

• President Obama walked into a global economic collapse that threatened to be much worse than the 1929 depression.  He stopped the fall on the strength of his charisma and the confidence he inspired.

• President Aquino was thrown into office by a people totally fed up with corruption and cheating. He has curtailed large ticket plunder.

• Both subsequently faced an intense backlash from opponents.

• President Obama bore the brunt of poisonously partisan Republican jealousy and anger. He was demeaned racially, slandered in terms of competence, and accused of being socialist and weak. Republicans went extreme, and they went nasty, and they went stubborn. He also faced the complaints of a broad population that was grossly less wealthy than the year before, many out of jobs.

• President Aquino faced the wrath of the corrupt. Early on, old generals were rumored to want to organize a coup because the drill-down on unexplained wealth accumulation was applying too much heat. Young officers said no way. Other corrupt people are reportedly laying low simply until President Aquino's term ends. He approached the task like a hangman looking for clients. Those with something to hide got scared, got angry.

• Both have persevered with important achievements.

• Mr. Obama has steadied the economy. It was once one step from death's door and is now about ready to climb out of the sick bed. He passed groundbreaking health care legislation, something other presidents have tried to do for decades but failed. He established a new foundation for American global prestige and leadership by pulling methodically out of Iraq and Afghanistan and engaging in other global hot spots as a partner and leader rather than the unilateral boss. He has pursued the war on terrorism as a "cell to cell" war, using drones and a brave and brazen raid to kill Bin Laden. Al Qaeda has been systematically carved up.

• Mr. Aquino has jailed predecessor Arroyo and dumped the Supreme Court Chief Justice into the trash bin of Arroyo's failed manipulations. He has steadied the economy by investing only in projects that are known to be clean of graft. He has re-written rules for bidding and is establishing tax systems that are efficient and fair. His ombudsman and justice secretary work diligently to hunt down the corrupt. He is investing in infrastructure, roads and airports and schools and highways in Manila. He has articulated a fine line of firmness with diplomacy in a tense face-off with China.

• Both face risks to their legacies as great leaders.

• President Obama must deal with partisan warfare that is intense and angry. He must carry the economic rebound through a minefield that Republicans have planted to make sure the President of the United States fails. So that they can win in the next election. It is a horrible form of democracy, a shame to those of us who are forced to watch, but that is more likely to be the downfall of Obama's legacy rather than the guns and rockets of Iran or other belligerent states.

• President Aquino must show that he can do more than jail people and manage an economy that was sound when he took office. To have a profound legacy, he must do tough things rather than bow to the traditional pressures that hold the Philippines back, the narrow values of the Catholic Church and the trading of favors that keeps those in power rich and powerful. Right now, he is failing to do that. Two legacy-making bills, RH and FOI, have languished without his support while a constitutionally challenged, oppressive cybercrime bill was pushed forward. If that tenor continues, he will waste the people's faith in him and return the Philippines to its days of lackluster progress and moral decay. And he will be labeled the grandest disappointment in Presidential history. In on a wave of adoration, out on wave of same-o same-o.

• Confidence levels

I am confident that President Obama will work diligently to protect American interests and build a safer, productive nation that is respected internationally. It will be a battle all the way because of Republican obstructionism. But he is a smart, pragmatic man. Confident. Right thinking. He'll do well.

With regard to President Aquino, I regret to say that I have turned pessimistic.  Two acts define my pessimism: (1) the President's eager support for an oppressive cybercrime law and his current pronouncement in favor of a "Right of Reply Bill", and (2) his failure to support FOI. It is clear that he has small vision, not big vision. Big vision is the idea that liberty energizes  and motivates a nation. It energizes and motivates pride, effort, investment, and productivity. But this big vision escapes President Aquino in favor of small-minded authoritarian controls. Withholding information by failing to push for FOI is one of those authoritarian controls, freezing out the good governance of transparency. He equates good governance with jailing people. Fine. Jail the crooks. But where is the uplift? Where is the Philippines soaring?

Mr. Aquino is approaching a breaking point, driven by the internet which allows people to watch what is going on carefully and prod government relentlessly. Mr. Aquino is feeling the heat. He complains about biased media frequently and his comments in favor of the Right of Reply Bill fairly reek with vengance against those villains in the media. But the media aren't biased. They accurately reflect the impatience of a capable and ambitious people who know their nation, particularly their Legislature, abetted by Executive, is under-performing.

Either President Aquino will recognize that the will of the people is for transparent government, freedom and a big nation, or he will be eaten alive, his legacy eroded by three more years of disappointment and criticism.

The Philippines and ObamaVision

The audience for this piece is not Filipinos in general. It is opinion leaders: senators, journalists, bloggers, people who influence the values and attitudes of the Philippines. The purpose of satire, of sarcasm, of ridicule is to present ideas, to open minds through humor and jibe. It is not to hurt or insult or embarrass. President Obama's dramatic victory speech was a classic statement of American values. It stands as a standard against which Philippine values can be measured. It is up to Philippine leaders, and those who influence leaders, to decide if existing values are okay, or if something needs to change. Or if JoeAm is simply a crank troll.

America, you are a delight to watch from afar.

From many, one.

For this year's presidential election, the battle forces were starkly drawn:

• Republican: White rednecks from rural areas, businessmen and Filipino Americans who aspire to be white rednecks.

• Democrat: Mexicans, blacks, poor urban dwellers, educated people, old folks, homosexuals, Hollywood stars, empty chairs and Bruce Springsteen.

Obama teased us with that sleepy performance in the first debate because he was bored. He needs a fight, you see. Like a pick-up basketball game. A challenge.

And the only reason the race was close is because Americans are tired of being insecure. Tired of carrying around the loss of trillions dollars of their wealth caused by the Bush global economic meltdown. Obama was a hero, after all, saving planet earth from an economic collapse. All the Republicans did was gripe because he didn't let GM go bankrupt.

He is not just a good leader. He is magnificent. Forget all the lies and deceits thrown up by the desperate and morally deficient preachers of the Republican extreme. He is no socialist, he was not born in Kenya, he is not a weak leader, he has done a superior job bringing back a really stinko economy. His only mistake was one that leaders often make, acting on hubris In thinking he could right the decimated economy in two years.  Obama has removed America from two wars, solved the decades old health care problem,  and recalibrated U.S. foreign policy as a leader in partnership with other nations rather than above them. He's smart, has a great family, and is a good guy with good principles.

The President does not control everything. He does not control the House of Representatives. Boehner does. That oily, back-stabbing low-life of a House leader who would sell his mother for a vote. Just like Pelosi. The U.S. Congress is stuffed with partisan idiots like that, of no distinguished diplomatic talent.

But at least they won't sue me for libel for having a hard opinion.

Indeed, American values are so far from Philippine values that they are beyond the horizon.

• Brand A: A dynamic president pounding the podium and declaring argument and criticism a good thing, and touting a word called liberty. From many voices, many ethnicities, many ideas - one grand nation.

• Brand P: A quiet guy shriveling back from press criticism and touting a word called libel. From the voice of authority, order - and a nation sealed in time.

We can see the stunning difference by using the Obama speech as a mirror. By reflecting Philippine reactions off of Obama's brilliant, charismatic oratory.

Obama: We want our kids to grow up in a country where they have access to the best schools and the best teachers – a country that lives up to its legacy as the global leader in technology and discovery and innovation – with all of the good jobs and new businesses that follow.

Philippines: We believe more babies are needed, even if we can't educate them or give them jobs. At least when they go to Dubai, they send a lot of money back.

Obama: We want our children to live in an America that isn't burdened by debt, that isn't weakened up by inequality, that isn't threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet.

Philippines: Hey, look at us. We are almost investment grade, and you are at the fiscal cliff! Nyahhh nyahhhh! No housing bubble for us. And never mind about all those high rises going up over Manila, or the people borrowing out the nose to buy the condos in them. They'll pay back the loans. They said they would.

Obama:  We want to pass on a country that's safe and respected and admired around the world, a nation that is defended by the strongest military on Earth and the best troops this – this world has ever known – but also a country that moves with confidence beyond this time of war to shape a peace that is built on the promise of freedom and dignity for every human being.

Philippines:  Got any used cutters we can have?

Obama:  We believe in a generous America, in a compassionate America, in a tolerant America open to the dreams of an immigrant's daughter who studies in our schools and pledges to our flag  – to the young boy on the south side of Chicago who sees a life beyond the nearest street corner – to the furniture worker's child in North Carolina who wants to become a doctor or a scientist, an engineer or an entrepreneur, a diplomat or even a president. That's the – that's the future we hope for.

Philippines:  Keep immigrants out of here. They don't think right and smell funny. Just send us their money. And forget that opportunity horsehockey, we reserve that for our name families, not some nameless kid on the south side of anywhere. We love our dynasties. They are so hysteri . . . I mean, historical.

Obama:  Now, we will disagree, sometimes fiercely, about how to get there. As it has for more than two centuries, progress will come in fits and starts. It's not always a straight line. It's not always a smooth path. By itself, the recognition that we have common hopes and dreams won't end all the gridlock, resolve all our problems or substitute for the painstaking work of building consensus and making the difficult compromises needed to move this country forward.

Philippines:  We are steady as a rock. We've gone nowhere for 125 years.

Obama:  But that doesn't mean your work is done. The role of citizens in our democracy does not end with your vote. America's never been about what can be done for us; it's about what can be done by us together, through the hard and frustrating but necessary work of self-government. That's the principle we were founded on.

Philippines:  Blech. Nothing in it for us.

Obama: This country has more wealth than any nation, but that's not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military in history, but that's not what makes us strong. Our university, our culture are all the envy of the world, but that's not what keeps the world coming to our shores. What makes America exceptional are the bonds that hold together the most diverse nation on Earth, the belief that our destiny is shared – that this country only works when we accept certain obligations to one another and to future generations, so that the freedom which so many Americans have fought for and died for come with responsibilities as well as rights, and among those are love and charity and duty and patriotism. That's what makes America great.

Philippines:  We don't need no stinkin' immigrants and we believe bloggers should be jailed for libel, like for 12 years. Freedom is for the betters, not the lessers.

Obama: And tonight, despite all the hardship we've been through, despite all the frustrations of Washington, I've never been more hopeful about our future. I have never been more hopeful about America. And I ask you to sustain that hope.

Philippines:  Our goal is not to work very hard unless we have to, you know, like when a storm knocks our town down.

Obama: I'm not talking about blind optimism, the kind of hope that just ignores the enormity of the tasks ahead or the road blocks that stand in our path. I'm not talking about the wishful idealism that allows us to just sit on the sidelines or shirk from a fight. I have always believed that hope is that stubborn thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us so long as we have the courage to keep reaching, to keep working, to keep fighting.

Philippines:  We believe in chicken fights, tele-dramas, white skin, tuba and Manny Pacquiao. And that Filipina Jessica Sanchez.

Obama:  America, I believe we can build on the progress we've made and continue to fight for new jobs and new opportunities and new security for the middle class. I believe we can keep the promise of our founding, the idea that if you're willing to work hard, it doesn't matter who you are or where you come from or what you look like or where you love. It doesn't matter whether you're black or white or Hispanic or Asian or Native American or young or old or rich or poor, abled, disabled, gay or straight. You can make it here in America if you're willing to try.

Philippines:  We believe you have to be born here to be a real Filipino, gays are living in sin, and we take care of those who take care of us. It's easier that way. And people should give us stuff. We believe in that, too.

Obama:  I believe we can seize this future together because we are not as divided as our politics suggests. We're not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and forever will be, the United States of America.

 Philippines:  You arrogant war-mongers. Global warming is your fault. Please never mind all the plastic we throw into the ocean that is coagulating as a new island off Hawaii. Or the oceans we turn into deserts with dynamite and overfishing.

Obama:  And together, with your help and God's grace, we will continue our journey forward and remind the world just why it is that we live in the greatest nation on earth. Thank you, America. God bless you. God bless these United States.

Philippines:  Yes! We're right with God, too!! Its more fun in the Philippines, and more sinful, too, but we are always forgiven for our transgressions. That's why it is more fun.

Cue confetti fall.